Long Reads
In-depth editorial pieces on markets, macro trends, and investment themes.
UK Inflation Rose to 2.9%: Why the Underlying Story Is Still Cooling
July's CPI rose to 2.9% on the Ofgem cap increase - while core held at 2.6%, services fell to 3.4% and private-sector pay slowed to 2.8%. What the split means for the Q4 peak, the Bank and the path back to target.
The FTSE 100 After the Re-Rating: What 10,500 Buys You — and What It Doesn't
London's blue-chip index has just delivered its best year since 2009, broken 10,000 for the first time and re-rated in the process. I still think the valuation case holds — but the composition that got the index here is the same composition that could take it back down.
UK Unemployment: The Numbers Behind the Headlines
The headline drop is real, but vacancies are at a four-year low, payrolls are down year on year, and wage growth has cooled. With inflation expected to keep grinding higher into the summer, this looks like a labour market that has stopped worsening — not one that is starting to recover.
UK Inflation Ticks Back Up: What the March Data Really Tells Us
March CPI came in at 3.3%. The obvious explanation is the Middle East. The less obvious story is everything underneath — sticky services, wage pass-through, and a Chancellor with very little fiscal room.