UK inflation and the Bank of England: where next for interest rates?
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UK Inflation Rose to 2.9%: Why the Underlying Story Is Still Cooling
July's CPI rose to 2.9% on the Ofgem cap increase - while core held at 2.6%, services fell to 3.4% and private-sector pay slowed to 2.8%. What the split means for the Q4 peak, the Bank and the path back to target.
The FTSE 100 After the Re-Rating: What 10,500 Buys You — and What It Doesn't
London's blue-chip index has just delivered its best year since 2009, broken 10,000 for the first time and re-rated in the process. I still think the valuation case holds — but the composition that got the index here is the same composition that could take it back down.
UK Unemployment: The Numbers Behind the Headlines
The headline drop is real, but vacancies are at a four-year low, payrolls are down year on year, and wage growth has cooled. With inflation expected to keep grinding higher into the summer, this looks like a labour market that has stopped worsening — not one that is starting to recover.
UK Inflation Ticks Back Up: What the March Data Really Tells Us
March CPI came in at 3.3%. The obvious explanation is the Middle East. The less obvious story is everything underneath — sticky services, wage pass-through, and a Chancellor with very little fiscal room.
Recent Company Analysis
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GSK plc (GSK) — Sell: Too Much Adjusting, Too Little Growth
GSK is a very large, very stable pharmaceutical business, and I'm quite happy with what it's been doing. But sales are only growing 3-4% a year and I don't like how much adjusting is happening to the income statement, so I've replaced the company's 172.0p adjusted earnings with my own 113.5p figure. On 6% growth, an 8x multiple and a 5% uplift that gives a valuation of 1,411.03p against a 1,817.50p share price — a value opportunity of -22.4%, and a Sell.
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ConvaTec Group PLC (CTEC) — Sell: Priced on Adjusted, Judged on Reported
ConvaTec keeps growing — four divisions, none of them shrinking, and revenue up 6.6% in 2025. But I'm valuing it on reported earnings of 8.60 cents, not the adjusted 17.6, because the amortisation of acquired intangibles runs through the company every single year. Net borrowing of $1,450m on $2.4bn of sales is too high. On a 6.5% growth rate and an 8x multiple that gives 104.58p against a 229.60p share price — a -54.5% value opportunity. Sell.
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NatWest Group plc (NWG) — Strong Buy: Earning More, Priced for Less
NatWest seems to really have managed to get their act together. Income up 11% to £8,862m, the margin up 20 basis points to 2.48%, impairments flat at 19 basis points, and the Evelyn Partners deal shifting the income mix towards fees. On a full-year earnings estimate of 84.6p, a 9% growth rate, an 8x multiple and a 5% uplift, that gives an actual valuation of 1,222.30p against 716.00p — a value opportunity of +70.7%. NatWest continues to be a strong buy for me.
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GSK plc (GSK) — Sell: Growing Slowly, Adjusting Heavily
GSK is a good, safe, well-protected pharmaceutical business, but sales aren't progressing as fast as is warranted at the current share price and I don't like how much adjusting is happening to the income statement. On an earnings per share figure of 113.5p, 6% growth, an 8x multiple and a 5% uplift, I get a valuation of 1,411.03p against a price of 1,817.50p — a value opportunity of −22.4%. Sell.
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Next plc (NXT) — Reduce: Everything Right Except the Price
Next beat its own second quarter forecast by £70m of full price sales and pushed only £15m of it through to profit — that restraint is exactly why the upgrades keep coming. It is an exceedingly well-run company, but almost all of the positivity is now in the price, and the growth is coming from overseas and Label rather than the core UK brand. On the company's own guided earnings per share of 812.9p, a 6% growth rate and a multiple of 8, I get a valuation of 9,624.74p against 15,045.00p — a value opportunity of −36.0%. Reduce.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) — Buy: Well Run, and Not Yet Fully Priced
JPMorgan is compounding earnings per share at 17.7% a year and the Commercial and Investment Bank is pulling away, with second-quarter 2026 net income of $21.2bn and record revenue in every line of business. The rate tailwind has largely done its work — net interest income excluding Markets is guided broadly flat at around $95bn — but the franchise is very well run and does not get itself into trouble. On 2025 earnings per share of $20.02, a 15% growth rate, a multiple of 9 and a 5% uplift, I get $444.59 a share against $348.40: a value opportunity of +27.6%. Buy, research grade A, probability 50%.
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